With Max starting 2nd from the dirty side of the track it was highly unlikely that he would be able to attack Lewis. On the other hand, Bottas could make a better start than Max from third position.
Mercedes had better race pace than Red Bull in Qatar, so it could have been a 1-2 for Mercedes if not for that penalty that left Bottas 6th on the dirty side, and that led him to make a disastrous start that conditioned his race, and going so long in his first stop, that in the end it cost him the puncture and the DNF.
So I think in any case the grid sanctions ended up helping Max and Red Bull… also this article:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/...KCszuHpf0LnGyVXBhYGqal3MXSQ0tJ9lBSv-67gZdHHjQ