The Shape of Things to Come

[Jim Dollares]

bpsmith

I hear you. Not rubbishing anything you’ve said. My only only point was that it depends on what your goal is. If it’s to become more high end then fair enough. If it’s to make more profit, then also fair enough. One doesn’t necessarily mean the other though, plus it takes some considerable time to elevate your brand past previous perceptions.

Good luck to them. I have no problem with whatever route they follow, other than losing me as a customer due to there being other brands out there I would rather buy for same money.

I am not a big hitter though, like others on here, so I won’t be missed by them.

I think we are very similar in our position bro, clearly I will not be able to be a TAG Heuer customer in the future either. Its a sad fact but I understand the direction they are heading in...

Still, I can't help but feel happy and fortunate to have been able to buy myself two of my absolute killer dream pieces. I have a silver Carrera and a silver Aquaracer. Life will be all good even if I can't buy more from this wonderful brand, at least I will live happy with the two sexy beauties I already own

 

[Aquagraph]

I wonder how long it will take to sell 1000 new Monaco's at £9000?

 

[Aquagraph]

The thing is, I guess TAG Heuer has LVMH behind it. So if the plan is to make TH go upmarket, then they can wait for the market to come round to the idea. The only thing is, I get the impression that lots of the watches aren't selling even at £5000, so I guess you might as well not sell them at £7000. At least the ones you do sell make more money

 

[Aquagraph]

Maybe the plan is to make TAG Heuer the Hublot for people who can't afford Hublot?

 

[Mspeedster]

Aquagraph

I believe even TAG boutiques (Goldsmith owned) will discount models, but only if they have been around a while and the buzz has gone cold. So if you can wait for a regular model you might save yourself some money

Another difference it seems between the US and UK. All the US Boutiques I've ever visited will not discount. Not sure about those in Outlet Malls, as I haven't visited one yet. But I assume the Outlets will be carrying the older models.

The article stated that their Boutiques are either directly TH owned or via partners (e.g. Goldsmith in the UK?), maybe this is why it's a little different across the pond.

 

[Mspeedster]

Aquagraph

I wonder how long it will take to sell 1000 new Monaco's at £9000?

This will be a good test. But then TAG could release them in batches, to make it look like they've sold out quickly. Will need to watch carefully.

 

[Jemagloh]

Mspeedster

This will be a good test. But then TAG could release them in batches, to make it look like they've sold out quickly. Will need to watch carefully.

Good point, @Mspeedster. My boutique mentioned they were getting the new Monaco in at least two batches.

 

[paysdoufs]

Aquagraph

I wonder how long it will take to sell 1000 new Monaco's at £9000?

IMHO a looong time. Especially if the model does not harken back 1:1 to some cult classic.

Remember how long the “Rindt” Autavia chronos or the Monza “reinterpretation” were around, including at TH outlets?

Mark my words: People will not queue up for a modern Monaco (let alone at 10k-ish) like they do for a Daytona or AP RO. The 42mm Carreras from W&W 2023 are already at minus 20% to 25% on C24.

Edited: Jul 26, 2023

 

[Mspeedster]

paysdoufs

IMHO a looong time. Especially if the model does not harken back 1:1 to some cult classic.

Remember how long the “Rindt” Autavia chronos or the Monza “reinterpretation” were around, including at TH outlets?

Mark my words: People will not queue up for a modern Monaco like they do for a Daytona or AP RO. The 42mm Carreras from W&W 2023 are already at minus 20% to 25% on C24.

I agree with you.

But in fairness, the Rindt and Monza remakes weren't LEs. OTOH, the Silver 160th Carrera LE was a quite faithful remake and it still took a very long time to sell out, at a much more reasonable price compared to the upcoming Monaco.

 

[paysdoufs]

I think that just goes to tell you how small the “real world market” for some pieces that we here cherish dearly actually is. Clearly, TH overestimated how many Ice King and “Montreal” Carreras the market would absorb when they decided to produce 2000 of each.

Edited: Jul 26, 2023

 

[Anthony.]

The whole Limited Production model is wh

paysdoufs

I think that just goes to tell you how small the “real world market” for some pieces that we here cherish dearly actually is. Clearly, TH overestimated how many Sliver King and “Montreal” Carreras the market would absorb when they decided to produce 2000 of each.

The Ice King was the biggest production in numbers st 1860. The Montreal was produced to 1000. After these 2 the numbers came down to 600 of the red and green dial Carrera.

The Colaboration with Hodinkee of the Dato was 250. The final piece Panda as we know had no trouble selling out with 600.

I think TH have found their sweet spot at 600 for LE pieces.

 

[Aquagraph]

paysdoufs

IMHO a looong time. Especially if the model does not harken back 1:1 to some cult classic.

Remember how long the “Rindt” Autavia chronos or the Monza “reinterpretation” were around, including at TH outlets?

Mark my words: People will not queue up for a modern Monaco (let alone at 10k-ish) like they do for a Daytona or AP RO. The 42mm Carreras from W&W 2023 are already at minus 20% to 25% on C24.

I liked those orange swoosh Carreras, but at £5000 from what I understand they are not moving at all.

 

[paysdoufs]

Yupp. While I think they’re great, they’re probably pretty nicht. Which makes me think they’re even greater

So, it’s probably all about patiently biding one’s time…

Edited: Jul 26, 2023

 

[Chrisred71]

I personally believe that Tag is trying to move up market without better products, just with brand image and higher pricing.

Just look at the new Aquaracer. It might look different but the spec sheet is exactly the same. In my book the only technical improvement is the bracelet which isn't even part of the watch itself.

Surprise, the old model was 2400€ as of 2019, the new one is now 3450€ which is roughly a 50% increase in less than 5 years.
Even inflation can't justify that.

At 2400€ the Aquaracer was very competitive. At 3450 ? Not so much. It get instantly compared to the Aquis Calibre 400 (priced at 3500€). That's a comparison the Aquaracer cannot win because of its antique 38h PR off-the-shelves movement, against the in-house 120h of the Oris.

On a side note I think the Calibre 5 / ETA2824 might the single less advanced caliber of all swiss watchmaking. It's a shame for a brand litterally named "Techniques d"Avant Gardes" to still use it in 2023 and to ask big money for it. Breitling does that too but only with COSC versions.

Tag did release an in-house 3 hands COSC movement, dubbed TH31-00. While it would be a long overdue upgrade for all 3 hands watches across the catalog, Tag made it available only in the solid gold aquaracer (???).

To me it feels like Tag is trying to ask more money for their watches without actually improving the said watches.
They hope their brand image will be enough.

It's like they're betting most Tag Heuer customers aren't deep enough into horology to tell it's a bad deal.

Edited: Jul 27, 2023

 

[Aquagraph]

Chrisred71

It's like they're betting most Tag Heuer customers aren't deep enough into horology to tell it's a bad deal.

This is exactly why.

 

[Jjspyder]

Anyone see the recent Frederic Arnault interviews on Bloomberg and CNBC (links below)? There are a lot of interesting bits of information in these articles. Apparently, Tag Heuer is not growing unit volume, but they increased sales volume by 11% through raising prices and higher average selling prices. They are not increasing production volumes. He says Tag Heuer is introducing products at higher prices than generally before (i.e. $10,000 Monaco skeletons). Tag Heuer is opening more boutiques and reducing their point of sales by almost half. This is probably to better control distribution and discounting, but they also want to control the customer experience. He says they want to ensure that the value of the watches are maintained over the long term. He says there are 18 month waiting lists for some models (not sure what those would be). He says Tag Heuer is coming back with exceptional, unique, differentiated complications like the Monaco V4 and Mikrograph.

Does this mean Tag Heuer is trying to move up market? I anticipate even more expensive watches coming like rattrapante chronographs with the OneWatch movement. I am also excited about new unique, differentiated complications like the Monaco V4 and Mikrograph. I always get a little annoyed when people refer to Tag Heuer watches as "entry level." I think Tag Heuer can innovate better than most of the major brands selling for over retail. I didn't purchase my Tags because they were entry level and couldn't afford a Rolex, I just find them way more interesting than your Rolex Datejust.

What do you guys think the brand will look like 5-10 years from now? Will people still be referring to Tag Heuer as entry level starter watches? Will discounted prices start going away? Will LVMH be successful in moving the brand up market? Will preowned Tag Heuer watches retain more value? LVMH has a strong history of accomplishing these things with their brands.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/oth...h-by-leaning-into-pricier-watches/ar-AA1eboSt

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/fro...tag-heuer-gaining-in-luxury-watch-market.html

 

[Jemagloh]

From that MSN article: "Every year we are raising prices, and we also are introducing products at higher prices than generally they were before. For example, this Monaco skeleton is about $10,500 when previously, the models were more like $6,000."

 

[Mspeedster]

This topic has been discussed here: https://tagheuerforums.com/threads/the-shape-of-things-to-come.161938/

I don't mind TAG Heuer focusing on high-end horology and complex complications. I think this is a good thing, as it was back in the mid-late 2000s.

However, I don't feel the constant price increases of existing watches, just to move them upscale, is a sustainable long term strategy. At some point, people will just stop buying. The Monaco is my favorite line, but I just can't justify paying the current asking prices.

 

[Albert-AMG]

^ Last three posts from a recent thread by @Jjspyder moved to this previously existing thread about this matter

 

[paysdoufs]

There’s probably no point having multiple threads on that subject (Maybe a modo could “fuse” the two together?), but here are my two cents nonetheless:

At this point (since it feels like every Swiss brand and their dog want to move upmarket), I’m not sure whether it is really a growth strategy any longer… or rather one to merely survive. These brands know that all of them (except Rolex) will sell fewer and fewer pieces in the foreseeable future. So, they all adopt the same solution to still be able to grow revenue…

What I'm wondering is whether all these brand CEOs really believe that there’s enough room in the marketplace for all of them to sell +5k dive watches and +10k chronographs (since this is where they are all heading)? When you have more than fifteen brands (once you throw in some non-Swiss) all competing for the same space, there’s bound to be some casualties, no?