The Shape of Things to Come

Mspeedster · Sep 17, 2023

bpsmith
Interesting video. It’s cool to investigate how seemingly unrelated real world events appear to influence product sales.

This graph was interesting, linked to how the racing boosted sales.

If you take that at face value, the 2021/22 season starts and sales drop, but overall had absolutely no affect on the market as it ended where it started, albeit with a blip each way in between. Arguably the end of the season could be said to boost sales.

2022/23 season is interesting as both the start of the season and Max signing a new contract saw sales plummet. Max is champion and it drops further, until season ends when it shoots up again.

2023/24 season starts and sales drop again, rise and then even out again. End of season data obviously not ready yet.

I don’t really see much correlation other than sales drop when the season starts and rise after it’s over. Seems to be the opposite of what the Max affect should be?

Now this is totally dependent on what was happening in the world outside of F1, plus when new models are released. Monaco’s in this case I assume.

Any thoughts?

I think you might be missing the point of the video. While the Max chart is interesting, it has no real meaning to me and if anything presents an argument that Max isn't helping sales.

But I believe what the video is trying to imply is that Monaco pricing is way up, the Monaco Index showing a 20.8% increase compared to the overall TAG Heuer Index at 6% over the last 3 years. The theory being that Max's popularity (and he's always wearing a Monaco) has enabled TAG to price up the Monaco line.

Moreover, while TAG lagged behind the industry over the last 3 years, TAG has beaten the Market index over the last year. The theory again (according to the video) is that the Monaco's increase has propelled the entire TH Index over the Market.

Monaco price index vs TH overall

TH vs the Industry over the last year

bpsmith · Sep 17, 2023

Mspeedster
I think you might be missing the point of the video. While the Max chart is interesting, it has no real meaning to me and if anything presents an argument that Max isn't helping sales.

But I believe what the video is trying to imply is that Monaco pricing is way up, the Monaco Index showing a 20.8% increase compared to the overall TAG Heuer Index at 6% over the last 3 years. The theory being that Max's popularity (and he's always wearing a Monaco) has enabled TAG to price up the Monaco line.

Moreover, while TAG lagged behind the industry over the last 3 years, TAG has beaten the Market index over the last year. The theory again (according to the video) is that the Monaco's increase has propelled the entire TH Index over the Market.

Monaco price index vs TH overall

TH vs the Industry over the last year

Most importantly, my points aren’t trying to rubbish you posting the video, as I genuinely find stuff like this interesting and I am glad you have responded as I enjoy this type of conversation.

I focussed on the Max chart as the video title focuses on that and I don’t think the chart showing the F1 season and Max signing a new contract actually shows that. It suggests the opposite if anything, which again I don’t think is true either. I just think that it doesn’t prove anything at all.

I mean a lot of you guys, who have multiple Monaco’s, had them before Max was wearing them and will continue after someone else becomes the focus. I haven’s seen any suggestion that he has any effect on this forum, other than him being an impressive driver.

As to the Monaco driving the index up, there may be something in that in fairness, although the first chart you posted shows the lines being in tandem other than the first rise in the Monaco. That probably sits in line with the rise in retail price of the Monaco which is disproportionate to the rest of the range.

I think that TAG Heuer are trying their luck at shifting their market and it appears to be working for the Monaco line so far. A number of us on here think it’s excessive, but it doesn’t appear to be the general consensus as they appear to be selling despite such increases. Don’t blame TAG Heuer for rolling with that as appears good business.

What happens to used prices when RRP is pushed up so quickly? Well they go up too. It’s the usual scenario when new pricing becomes prohibitive and some buy used, plus others try their luck in asking more. People who may have bought a Monaco might look at other models by TAG Heuer when they are out priced by the new pricing too.

In summary, Max’s involvement is not at all proven in that video. Monaco’s involvement with RRP increases appears more plausible.

Just out of interest, could you guys who own Monaco’s please confirm whether you were more inclined to purchase after seeing one on Max?

bpsmith · Sep 17, 2023

Randomly, the recording I was watching just finished and the F1 Singapore highlights are on. Not watched F1 in years, so started watching but got sidetracked by looking at Richard Mille for some reason. 😀

Mspeedster · Sep 17, 2023

bpsmith
Most importantly, my points aren’t trying to rubbish you posting the video, as I genuinely find stuff like this interesting and I am glad you have responded as I enjoy this type of conversation.

I focussed on the Max chart as the video title focuses on that and I don’t think the chart showing the F1 season and Max signing a new contract actually shows that. It suggests the opposite if anything, which again I don’t think is true either. I just think that it doesn’t prove anything at all.

I mean a lot of you guys, who have multiple Monaco’s, had them before Max was wearing them and will continue after someone else becomes the focus. I haven’s seen any suggestion that he has any effect on this forum, other than him being an impressive driver.

As to the Monaco driving the index up, there may be something in that in fairness, although the first chart you posted shows the lines being in tandem other than the first rise in the Monaco. That probably sits in line with the rise in retail price of the Monaco which is disproportionate to the rest of the range.

I think that TAG Heuer are trying their luck at shifting their market and it appears to be working for the Monaco line so far. A number of us on here think it’s excessive, but it doesn’t appear to be the general consensus as they appear to be selling despite such increases. Don’t blame TAG Heuer for rolling with that as appears good business.

What happens to used prices when RRP is pushed up so quickly? Well they go up too. It’s the usual scenario when new pricing becomes prohibitive and some buy used, plus others try their luck in asking more. People who may have bought a Monaco might look at other models by TAG Heuer when they are out priced by the new pricing too.

In summary, Max’s involvement is not at all proven in that video. Monaco’s involvement with RRP increases appears more plausible.

Just out of interest, could you guys who own Monaco’s please confirm whether you were more inclined to purchase after seeing one on Max?

Just because I post a video doesn't mean I agree with it. Your first remark seems to imply that. So I would never think you're trying to rubbish me, since I never really agreed with the video in the first place. I just found it interesting and thought it might amuse the forum.

I agree with the rest of your points.

bpsmith · Sep 17, 2023

Mspeedster
Just because I post a video doesn't mean I agree with it. Your first remark seems to imply that. So I would never think you're trying to rubbish me, since I never really agreed with the video in the first place. I just found it interesting and thought it might amuse the forum.

I agree with the rest of your points.

Apologies if you thought that. My first remark was actually trying to convey the opposite of what you think. I was trying to say exactly what you said, but didn’t want you to think I was aiming my response at you, just because you posted it.

We’re on the same page basically.

As for the Monaco, I really like it. The only reason I don’t own one is that, whilst I could afford to buy, it has always been right on the cusp of what I am prepared to spend on any single piece and the more prices rise the harder it is for me to want to buy as no particular version has really grabbed me enough.

The Dark Lord has been closest, with Gulf in second place, but not enough for me to part with the cash.

paysdoufs · Sep 17, 2023

This just came up on my YT start page and I think it kind of nicely fits in here...

Pitty for the rather thick accent, but I feel Olivier is making some valid and well-built points:

bpsmith · Sep 17, 2023

paysdoufs
This just came up on my YT start page and I think it kind of nicely fits in here...

Pitty for the rather thick accent, but I feel Olivier is making some valid and well-built points:

Nothing wrong with his accent. Always nice to hear a range of people.

He does make good points in fairness.

The Shape of Things to Come

Mspeedster

bpsmith

bpsmith

Mspeedster

bpsmith

paysdoufs

bpsmith

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