Morgan Stanley Top 20 Swiss Watch Brands - TAG Heuer is down again

Aquagraph
Posts
21,672
Likes
30,460
McBeardy McBeardy
I think as a ‘brand’ & the cache it has TH is still very much recognisable, around the world and to many who aren’t into watches.

But I agree they shouldn’t be chasing the void left by Rolex & Omega, and instead be proud of the ‘entry level’ moniker they had. What is wrong with being someone’s first luxury watch or stepping stone into the world, many collectors who have embraced much larger luxury watch still fondly remember their entry level Tags.

The issue with many fans & the criticism they get is the RRP they charge for the value they offer (not necessarily in-house) but power reserve being more than 38hrs or a calibre5 which is known to break. If brands below Tag can produce better Tag should!

if they kept to the £1,000-£5,000 price bracket but had a stable of iconic (cue heritage) models, modern looking watches (aquaracers,l etc) & some that possible forward thinking, providing they provide good specs they’ll crush it.

Well, there you go. It took all day but we cracked it. Someone call Julien and tell him the good news.
 
McBeardy
Posts
1,621
Likes
1,591
Aquagraph Aquagraph
Well, there you go. It took all day but we cracked it. Someone call Julien and tell him the good news.

I’ll DM you my address for the invoice
 
Aquagraph
Posts
21,672
Likes
30,460
McBeardy McBeardy
Uber luxury will always do well. But look at the market they aim for F1 drivers & footballers, people whose disposable income isn’t going to run out.

Actually, maybe you have hit on something there. The brands that have done better than last year - Swatch and Tissot are cheaper brands, the brands that have fallen TAG and Tudor are lower-mid priced brands. Perhaps there is an argument that the lower-mid tier brands are suffering more because people who buy those watches are more likely to be affected by the economy, and this has benefitted Tissot as a more affordable alternative.

And as I said before I think Swatch is an anomoly due to the Moonswatch

I would assume the brands like Vacheron / AP / Cartier are perhaps less affected as I would assume those brands are bought by people who are more affluent and (along with JLC) are probably more likely bought by watch nerds who would probably give up many other things before watches. By contrast I would hazard a lot of TAG and Tudor customers are casual watch purchasers and with TAG's Formula 1 range in dire need of an update (some of these pieces are getting on for ten years old - albeit with a minor tweak like a 1mm size increase and a new logo) the real entry level purchaser is not exactly being well catered to and so perhaps is going to Tissot instead.

Also we should bear in mind that we have no idea how close these results are, TAG have fallen two places, but that could be $50m or $5m. And, we should also bear in mind we have no idea how Rolex is doing compared to previous years. They could lose 50% of their turnover and they would still be miles clear of Cartier.
 
Aquagraph
Posts
21,672
Likes
30,460
There could also be regional factors at play... the UK is a big market for TAG, and the UK is not exactly doing great at the moment. Perhaps JLC is popular in another country which isn't doing as badly as we are and so less affected?
 
paysdoufs
Posts
1,413
Likes
3,070
Mspeedster Mspeedster
I wish I wasn't right about the trend. I hope Julien can turn things around.
I’m not sure what Tornare will do - But we’d better be realistic and remember that Zenith is (still) not even in the Top 25 after his reign.

Also, LVMH Watches is now overseen by the one person who has been in charge of the TH “success story” for the last 5 years (or so). So, I wouldn’t get me hopes up too much…

Graphical representation of the 2018-2023 and 2022-2023 grands can be found here (Sorry, but the figure legends are in German):
- https://uhrforum.de/threads/industr...n-der-fhs-zum-uhrenexport.346817/post-8804040
- https://uhrforum.de/threads/industr...n-der-fhs-zum-uhrenexport.346817/post-8804848
 
Mspeedster
Posts
8,100
Likes
16,417
paysdoufs paysdoufs
I’m not sure what Tornare will do - But we’d better be realistic and remember that Zenith is (still) not even in the Top 25 after his reign.

Also, LVMH Watches is now overseen by the one person who has been in charge of the TH “success story” for the last 5 years (or so). So, I wouldn’t get me hopes up too much…

Graphical representation of the 2018-2023 and 2022-2023 grands can be found here (Sorry, but the figure legends are in German):
- https://uhrforum.de/threads/industr...n-der-fhs-zum-uhrenexport.346817/post-8804040
- https://uhrforum.de/threads/industr...n-der-fhs-zum-uhrenexport.346817/post-8804848
Those charts present an even gloomier picture for TAG Heuer.

My take away is that since JCB's departure, they've lost significant market share and their revenue has also significantly declined. Stephane Bianchi took over from Biver, and was Frederic's boss when he took over from Stephane as TAG CEO. I believe Frederic still reports to Bianchi.
 
Ara
Posts
831
Likes
1,265
Would be fun to start a micro brand with you guys.

Be like one of those sports teams where the entire town owns the team.
 
Mspeedster
Posts
8,100
Likes
16,417
paysdoufs paysdoufs
I’m not sure what Tornare will do - But we’d better be realistic and remember that Zenith is (still) not even in the Top 25 after his reign.
I'm not expecting miracles, just hoping Julien can steer the business to an upward trajectory again.

This chart from a new Monochrome article has a more holistic view, showing the Top 50 with projected turnover and unit sales.
Top 50+Swiss+Watch+Brands.jpg


TAG Heuer's turnover in 2018 was about 810M CHF, down to 615M CHF in 2023.
Zenith's turnover in 2018 was about 110M CHF, up to 138M CHF in 2023. Not a huge gain, but at least they went in the right direction.

I consider Breitling to be quite similar to TAG Heuer in terms of offerings and history. They've basically traded places since 2018. Breitling going from 16th to 9th, TAG dropping from 8th or 9th to 15th.
Edited:
 
paysdoufs
Posts
1,413
Likes
3,070
Mspeedster Mspeedster
(…)

I mentioned Georges Kern as an example of a CEO with the confidence to make real change. It just so happens he chose to focus on Heritage. I wasn't saying that Heritage is necessarily the answer for TAG Heuer.

TAG just needs to pick a strategy and stick with it. (…).
Even though I know that Rob doesn’t want to hear this 😉, personally I continue to think that TH is way too weak in the neovintage department in view of the tons of legitimate heritage they have… More so than any other brand out there when it comes to chronos.

It occurred to me recently that this might be part of their misguided strategy, btw: Since a chrono is a “complicated” watch, some people high up on the tree at TH seem to be convinced that they have to be sold at +6k or +7k LP at a minimum. Which just limits their sales potential since they’ll compete with so many other brands…

Just bite the bullet, source some 7753- or bicompax-like HW COSC movements from Sellita and offer some neovintage (colored) Carreras or b&w Autavias at <5k to the market and see if that sticks. At least you’d have a real USP over the competition. As far as I know, vintage Heuer chronos were never about being the technologically most advanced watches anyway, but about being the coolest.
Edited:
 
paysdoufs
Posts
1,413
Likes
3,070
Aquagraph Aquagraph
And aftershave, Mont Blanc Explorer Platinum is very nice.
That would be Montblanc “Emblem” EdT for me, please, btw.
 
paysdoufs
Posts
1,413
Likes
3,070
Gene242 Gene242
With the glassbox, at least over here the skipper and steel chronosprint are what most people seem interested in but Tag seem to have limited supply
I really think the 39mm modern glassbox watches are just too damn tiny on the wrist for a lot of people. I’ve just seen them again in the boutique a couple of days ago and wasn’t even keen on trying one on one more time…
 
paysdoufs
Posts
1,413
Likes
3,070
Gene242 Gene242
I wonder how much of JLC rise is due to their near 40% increase on some pieces...if it did, I fear it incentivises Tag and other brands to continue increase their prices
JLC sales have already stalled during the 2022-23 exercise…
 
Mspeedster
Posts
8,100
Likes
16,417
paysdoufs paysdoufs
I really think the 39mm modern glassbox watches are just too damn tiny on the wrist for a lot of people. I’ve just seen them again in the boutique a couple of days ago and wasn’t even keen on trying one on one more time…
The Seafarer will be 42mm, maybe that'll be the one for you. 😀
 
Aquagraph
Posts
21,672
Likes
30,460
paysdoufs paysdoufs
Even though I know that Rob doesn’t want to hear this 😉, personally I continue to think that TH is way too weak in the neovintage department in view of the ton of legitimate heritage they have… More so than any other brand out there when it comes to chronos.

It occurred to me recently that this might be part of their misguided strategy, btw: Since a chrono is a “complicated” watch, some people high up on the tree at TH seem to be convinced that they have to be sold at +6k or +7k LP at a minimum. Which just limits their sales potential since they’ll compete with so many other brands…

Just bite the bullet, source some 7753- or bicompax-like HW COSC movements from Sellita and offer some neovintage (colored) Carreras or b&w Autavias at <5k to the market and see if that sticks. At least you’d have a real USP over the competition. As far as I know, vintage Heuer chronos were never about being the technologically most advanced watches anyway, but about being the coolest.

Surely appealing to watch nerds is not going to bring in an extra $200m. They need to appeal to the man in the street who doesn't know the history and just wants a nice looking watch... probably under £2500.
 
dtf
Posts
2,700
Likes
2,585
Aquagraph Aquagraph
Surely appealing to watch nerds is not going to bring in an extra $200m. They need to appeal to the man in the street who doesn't know the history and just wants a nice looking watch... probably under £2500.

I wonder if TAG lost out because of their position as a ‘gateway watch’, the first ‘nice’ watch someone bought, then upgraded to Rolex/omega when they had more cash in their pockets, due to the availability of cheap money.

I’ve got £2500 in my pocket after getting that promotion/bonus/saving up, I could go and buy a Aquaracer, but the internet tells me they suck and Rolex and Omega are real watches. What if everyone sees my sucky TAG and laughs? 15 years ago, no one would dream of financing a watch, now I can take my hard earned £2500 and use it as the down payment on a £6-12k omega, paying it off over 2-4 years for that affordable monthly.

Speaking personally, I would 100% finance a Tudor/Omega/Rolex rather than buy a TH outright at the moment because there’s nothing in the catalog that calls to me at the prices they’re asking. Apart from maybe a gretagraph.
 
Aquagraph
Posts
21,672
Likes
30,460
dtf dtf
I wonder if TAG lost out because of their position as a ‘gateway watch’, the first ‘nice’ watch someone bought, then upgraded to Rolex/omega when they had more cash in their pockets, due to the availability of cheap money.

I’ve got £2500 in my pocket after getting that promotion/bonus/saving up, I could go and buy a Aquaracer, but the internet tells me they suck and Rolex and Omega are real watches. What if everyone sees my sucky TAG and laughs? 15 years ago, no one would dream of financing a watch, now I can take my hard earned £2500 and use it as the down payment on a £6-12k omega, paying it off over 2-4 years for that affordable monthly.

Speaking personally, I would 100% finance a Tudor/Omega/Rolex rather than buy a TH outright at the moment because there’s nothing in the catalog that calls to me at the prices they’re asking. Apart from maybe a gretagraph.

Yeah, maybe there's some truth in that too. Especially if those people believe that Rolex / Omega is an 'investment opportunity'... perhaps TAG benefitted from this before with people upgrading from Tissot, but now everyone is either going back to affordable or proper luxury and that's leaving the middle ground a bit weak?
 
Mspeedster
Posts
8,100
Likes
16,417
dtf dtf
I wonder if TAG lost out because of their position as a ‘gateway watch’, the first ‘nice’ watch someone bought, then upgraded to Rolex/omega when they had more cash in their pockets, due to the availability of cheap money.

I’ve got £2500 in my pocket after getting that promotion/bonus/saving up, I could go and buy a Aquaracer, but the internet tells me they suck and Rolex and Omega are real watches. What if everyone sees my sucky TAG and laughs? 15 years ago, no one would dream of financing a watch, now I can take my hard earned £2500 and use it as the down payment on a £6-12k omega, paying it off over 2-4 years for that affordable monthly.

Speaking personally, I would 100% finance a Tudor/Omega/Rolex rather than buy a TH outright at the moment because there’s nothing in the catalog that calls to me at the prices they’re asking. Apart from maybe a gretagraph.

The other aspect that ties into this is repeat business. It's one thing to be that first nice entry level luxury watch, but TAG Heuer needs to keep customers hooked.

I wonder how many young buyers bought their Aquaracer or F1, thinking they've made it. Only to find out later that the watch community at large often views TAG as in this well known "Phases of Watch Collecting" chart.
bannermeme.jpg
TAG Heuer has an image problem that they need to fix. That won't happen if they focus on the $2500-$3000 range as their primary core strategy.

BTW, I know I'll never hit phase 10. While I feel like I've gone through many of these phases, I'm perfectly happy reverting back to phases 1 & 2, before I hit phase 11. 😀
 
14 More Posts...
Sign up or log in to reply...