Has the internet ruined watches?

[abrod520]

THJunkie

The plus side of all the ‘Rolex and vintage hype’ is that the more money spent on those, then the less spent on everything else in the market. This beans more bargains! Every cloud etc.

Oh no no, quite the opposite actually. As monied watch enthusiasts get priced out of Rolex models, they look to spend elsewhere.... places like Heuers, and old Speedmasters, and anything vintage over 38mm. With even common Submariner and GMT-Master models from the 1960s now having essentially doubled in price over the last 4 years or so, everything else is super expensive and it's because they guy who has $6,000 jangling around in his pocket can no longer buy a classic Rolex.

 

[THJunkie]

abrod520

Oh no no, quite the opposite actually. As monied watch enthusiasts get priced out of Rolex models, they look to spend elsewhere.... places like Heuers, and old Speedmasters, and anything vintage over 38mm. With even common Submariner and GMT-Master models from the 1960s now having essentially doubled in price over the last 4 years or so, everything else is super expensive and it's because they guy who has $6,000 jangling around in his pocket can no longer buy a classic Rolex.

I meant everything else except the stuff that you mentioned. I said ‘rolex and vintage’ you then listed rolex and old/vintage.

I’m being selfish of course, but as I couldn't give a stuff about those, then the things I so like - there are more discounts

 

[abrod520]

THJunkie

I meant everything else except the stuff that you mentioned. I said ‘rolex and vintage’ you then listed rolex and old/vintage.

I’m being selfish of course, but as I couldn't give a stuff about those, then the things I so like - there are more discounts

Well at first it was just Rolex hype, then it became Rolex and "old/vintage" hype (not true BTW, ask the cool old skindivers I've been spending $50-300 on lately, they'll tell you ) and now Phillips has planned an auction showcasing watches from 2000 and up. They're coming for the things you like too

 

[THJunkie]

abrod520

Well at first it was just Rolex hype, then it became Rolex and "old/vintage" hype (not true BTW, ask the cool old skindivers I've been spending $50-300 on lately, they'll tell you ) and now Phillips has planned an auction showcasing watches from 2000 and up. They're coming for the things you like too

Maybe. I don’t really follow or understand the watch speculation thing. Personally I think the wheels will come off the bus on that one as I don’t see the next generation giving a stuff about it. The non speculative enthusiasts are mostly on the way to the grave. The speculators will bail in droves once the ‘investment’ angle is at risk.

there are so many brand new watches that come out that there will always be something nice to buy. My biggest concern - if really a concern at all - is that general contraction and reduction of production numbers will mean the new stuff I like will become more expensive. For that there is always a bit more overtime to compensate. Or just buy less. No harm In that really.

There will be plenty of nice interesting bargains in that domain with the contraction of the supply chain and brands. I’ll not worry if a S/EL suddenly commends £20k because Hoodwinky have hyped it up and some auction house has cornered the market.

PS: the other thread about the LVHM results proves my point 100%. Sales are down. Partly I expect because of a proportion of the global watch spending purse going to the collector/speculator end of the market on select (very small number of models in grand scheme of things). Vast majority of watches for sale today are not in such demand. Until the makers of those items rebalance their brand message and supply/demand curve then all will be well ha ha.

Omega seem to be making big steps in that direction. TH not so much yet,

Edited: Jul 31, 2020

 

[abrod520]

THJunkie

I don’t really follow or understand the watch speculation thing.

Well that's the thing though, the speculators trying to make money affect all of us. So once Phillips starts bringing in 3x value for previously not-so-in-demand watches from 2000-2010, it won't matter if you are investing or if you just want to wear and enjoy the watch - you'll have to spend a lot more to do so, than you would have beforehand. And it does affect high-demand modern watches as well, even non- LE ones like Rolexes, Tudor Black Bays, and others. The speculator who has been priced out of snapping up a Rolex Sub at 8k and selling it a year later at 14k, is now buying Black Bay 58s at MSRP and then demanding an extra $700 to allow you to enjoy it, unless you'd rather wait 2 years on a list.

 

[THJunkie]

Well on the bright side if they do come after what I like, then my current ‘investments’ (lol) will likely gain and offset the higher prices I’ll need to pay for any new ones.

Though I sincerely doubt ceramic Speedmasters and re-issue Carreras will appreciate in my lifetime.

As for why the wanabe Rolexes are commanding a premium is beyond me. But each to their own, that Lady Gaga endorsement has to be paid for somehow!

 

[Aquagraph]

You can't have it both ways though, classic Heuer was always under-appreciated and under valued. Now its more in line with classic models from other major brands.

abrod520

Well at first it was just Rolex hype, then it became Rolex and "old/vintage" hype (not true BTW, ask the cool old skindivers I've been spending $50-300 on lately, they'll tell you ) and now Phillips has planned an auction showcasing watches from 2000 and up. They're coming for the things you like too

Judging by the prices I've seen 2000 era THs go for in the Fellows auctions I don't think we need lose too much sleep. And I imagine even if it's 2000era models, it will be Carreras and Monacos, not Kiriums and 2000s

 

[abrod520]

Aquagraph

You can't have it both ways though, classic Heuer was always under-appreciated and under valued. Now its more in line with classic models from other major brands.

That is true, and after the initial speculative spike values for vintage Heuers have settled a bit which is nice. But you still have so many dealers insisting on 2018 pricing for wearer-grade watches

Aquagraph

Judging by the prices I've seen 2000 era THs go for in the Fellows auctions I don't think we need lose too much sleep.

Sorry I mean they're going after watches generally, not TAG. Though I wouldn't be surprised to see them take aim at the CS and CV Carreras from the time, as those are already starting to move up a bit.

 

[Aquagraph]

It's a bit like house prices. People get very excited about their house increasing in value.... until they want to buy another one and suddenly rising prices are a negative thing!

 

[THJunkie]

Aquagraph

It's a bit like house prices. People get very excited about their house increasing in value.... until they want to buy another one and suddenly rising prices are a negative thing!

hopefully not too many of the Rolex speculators will ‘downsize’ to a Tag